Anheuser-Busch InBev SA (BUD) Q3 FY25 earnings call: guidance and Q&A

Why shift to a two-year $6B buyback — is it a signal of clearer capital-allocation priorities and pacing flexibility? And how important is it that industry pricing moderates from recent extremes as inflation eases?

Fernando framed the buyback as an evolution of an unchanged, disciplined framework now that the balance sheet is improved — to be read alongside the interim dividend and debt reduction, not standalone. Michel stressed organic growth remains priority #1; category full potential is ~1% in normal conditions; as inflation normalizes, pricing should face less inflationary pressure, but leaders should still be able to price at least with inflation over the long run while balancing affordability and premiumization.

“beer is an affordable category and affordability is very important for beer. And after 3, 4 years of high cost pressure... we would expect less pressure on the prices coming from inflation.”

asked by Edward Mundy · answered by Fernando Tennenbaum / Michel Doukeris

Can the category/ABI footprint return to volume growth in 2026? And what is the early read on 2026 input costs given FX and hedge timing?

Michel declined to guide volumes but was constructive: 2025 was pressured by inflation on consumer baskets plus a La Niña weather one-off; fundamentals unchanged with 80%+ of growth from developing/developed markets, less consumer pressure as inflation eases, plus the FIFA tailwind. Fernando reiterated no COGS guidance but a 12-month-ahead hedge policy; 2026 looks like a 'normal year' with slightly more U.S. pressure (Midwest Premium), and the half-year cost cadence likely inverts versus 2025 based on current FX.

“Overall for CPGs, it's hard to believe that's going to be worse than what we saw this year. The worst case scenario should be the same, but we think that can be better.”

asked by Mitchell Collett · answered by Michel Doukeris / Fernando Tennenbaum

Are Brazil and Colombia showing the same consumer improvement seen in Mexico's exit rate? And do you still view going below 2x net-debt/EBITDA as value-destructive?

Michel said Mexico's exit rate improved on better weather/normalized pricing, but Brazil remained hit by unseasonable weather (though share bounced back strongly as relative prices normalized and premium share gains accelerated); Colombia is healthier with more moderate inflation and continued volume/share growth. Fernando reaffirmed ~2x as optimal, noted most leverage benefit is captured by 3x, and said being below 2x brings flexibility to be 'more on the offense' while organic growth stays priority #1.

“the long term goal is still 2x, but you have less of an urgency to go there. You can have more flexibility once you're below this level, which we reached at the end of last year.”

asked by Laurence Whyatt · answered by Michel Doukeris / Fernando Tennenbaum

What is the strategic and ROIC rationale (and timing) for winning the Champions League rights? And what has driven Cutwater's breakout, is it sustainable, and can the model travel?

Michel positioned mega-platform/mega-brand sponsorships (FIFA, Netflix, UEFA) as consumer-led investments to help premium brands out-execute competitors; UEFA execution starts 2027. On Cutwater, patient high-quality brand-building since a 2018 bet reached a tipping point over summer — #1 spirits share gainer, triple-digit growth, top-10 U.S. spirits brand — proving ABI can build incremental Beyond Beer brands and export the model (e.g., Flying Fish rollout).

“2027 is the right timeline for us to start executing on that.”

asked by Robert Ottenstein · answered by Michel Doukeris

Given softer volumes yet mid-range EBITDA delivery, did you adapt the plan (more agile revenue management or tighter cost control)? And why are Middle Americas ex-Mexico markets more resilient, and can they keep growing volume?

Michel said the dynamic environment (this year's added factor being unseasonable Americas weather) required agile resource reallocation, leveraging a broad premium-to-value portfolio, with cost and revenue discipline as the differentiator behind margin/EBITDA/EPS growth. He reaffirmed Middle Americas' long-run relevance and ABI's positioning to capture regional growth, without a specific 12-month volume commitment.

“The discipline in cost management, the discipline in revenue management was very, very important for us. A differentiator, I would say, during this period.”

asked by Andrea Pistacchi · answered by Michel Doukeris

How big is Beyond Beer now, and what are the opportunities and profitability outside North America? And what were the building blocks of the strong gross-margin performance despite FX headwinds?

Michel sized Beyond Beer at ~2% of volume (up from ~1%), growing 27%, 2/3+ incremental, sold at higher prices with higher per-hl/SKU profitability than equivalent beer, with a large addressable market beyond North America (Cutwater, Nutrl, Brutal Fruit, Flying Fish, Busch Light Apple). Fernando attributed gross-margin strength to premium-brand net revenue/hl plus COGS efficiencies and fixed-cost leverage offsetting FX/commodity market prices.

“This today for us is around 2%. It is growing 27%. The opportunity here is huge because the addressable market outside of the beer category is very relevant and is bigger than the beer category itself.”

asked by Celine Pannuti · answered by Michel Doukeris / Fernando Tennenbaum

How large was the Q3 China destock within the ~11% volume fall, will destocking continue into Q4, and are the new innovations in-market yet? And what is the early read on Phorm Energy and its differentiation?

Michel split the China volume decline into roughly thirds — geographic/channel footprint, inventory right-sizing, and on-to-off-premise shift — with most inventory adjustment done and the rest phasing out through Q4, alongside off-premise distribution expansion and innovation (BUD Magnum, Corona drop-line can, Harbin) rolling out now. Phorm Energy, ABI's first majority-owned energy brand, targets a specific 'do the work' consumer cohort with a clean-energy proposition; distribution and awareness are building, with meaningful upside expected in 2026.

“Inventory adjustments, one-third channel shifts, one-third, these both should phase out as we go through quarter 4.”

asked by Simon Hales · answered by Michel Doukeris