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    PTRN
    Earnings call· Dec 2025(Q4 FY25)

    Pattern Group Q4 FY25 earnings call PTRN

    Mar 5, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    Pattern Group Inc. Q4 FY25 — Record Revenue, Retention, and Expanding Profitability

    Pattern Group concluded FY25 with record revenue, net revenue retention, and expanding profitability, driven by strong international and non-Amazon channel growth. The company is strategically investing in AI-driven technology and global fulfillment capabilities to capitalize on the evolving e-commerce landscape, which is increasingly shaped by AI and automation. While facing tougher comparisons and increased R&D investment in 2026, management remains confident in its ability to deliver long-term value through continued growth and cash generation.

    Highlights

    6
    • Full-year revenue increased 39% to $2.5 billion.

    • Record net revenue retention (NRR) of 124% for the year, up from 116% in 2024.

    • International revenue increased 63% for the full year, accelerating to 69% YoY in Q4.

    • Non-Amazon revenue grew 60% for the full year, surging 94% in Q4.

    • Adjusted EBITDA grew 52% to $153 million for the full year, with a 6.1% margin.

    • Free cash flow increased 58% to $79 million for the full year.

    Concerns

    4
    • Expects difficult comparables in H2 2026 due to lapping record 40%+ growth rates.

    • Anticipates a more normalized cadence of new product expansions in 2026.

    • Increased R&D investment is expected to cause slight deleverage in margin percentage in the short term for 2026.

    • New fulfillment facility launches in 2026 may lead to less leverage in the fulfillment line items.

    Guidance & targets

    5
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Full-year 2026 Revenue
    $3.12 billion to $3.16 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Q1 2026 Revenue
    $710 million to $720 million
    medium materiality
    High
    Full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA
    approximately $180 million to $182 million
    high materiality
    High
    Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA
    $41 million to $42 million
    medium materiality
    High
    Long-term Net Revenue Retention (NRR)
    115%
    high materiality
    High

    Operational metrics

    27
    Net Revenue Retention
    124%up from 116% in 2024
    FY25

    Record NRR for the year.

    International Revenue Growth
    63%
    FY25

    Momentum accelerated in Q4.

    Non-Amazon Revenue Growth
    60%
    FY25

    Surged in Q4, driven by triple-digit growth on Coupang, TikTok Shop, and Walmart.

    SaaS Services and Logistics Revenue Growth
    58%
    FY25

    Still a smaller portion of revenue, reflects strong platform build-out.

    Data Points
    66 trillionup significantly from 47 trillion just 6 months ago
    Current

    Powers the Pattern intelligence layer.

    Marketplace Bid Changes
    5.53 billion
    2025

    Executed by automation engine in real time.

    Price Changes
    40 million
    2025

    Executed by automation engine in real time.

    Marketplaces Operated In
    70+
    Current

    Expanded global footprint.

    Shipment Time to Marketplaces
    1.5 days
    Current

    Meaningfully improved speed.

    Days Inventory Outstanding (DIO)
    72 days10-day reduction year-over-year
    FY25

    Reflects focus on operational efficiency.

    Existing Brand Partner Revenue
    $2.2 billionup 42% year-over-year
    FY25

    Reached a record.

    New Brand Partner Revenue
    $282 millionup 22% year-over-year
    FY25

    Double-digit acceleration from 2024.

    Revenue from Brand Partners > 5 years
    53%
    2025

    Demonstrates how growth compounds over time.

    Adjusted EBITDA
    $153 million52% growth year-over-year
    FY25

    Achieved for the full year.

    Adjusted EBITDA
    $43 million59% growth year-over-year
    Q4 FY25

    Realized some margin benefit due to timing of hiring.

    Adjusted EBITDA to Free Cash Flow Conversion Rate
    52%
    FY25
    Cash and Cash Equivalents
    $289 million
    End of FY25

    Ended the period with this balance.

    Borrowing Capacity under Revolving Credit Facility
    $150 million
    End of FY25

    Available, with no outstanding debt.

    Share Repurchase Program Authorization
    $100 million
    Authorized

    Board of Directors authorized.

    R&D Expense Growth
    46%
    FY25

    Accelerated investment.

    Sales and Marketing Expense Growth
    in line with revenue
    FY25

    Excluding stock-based compensation.

    Pipeline of Target Opportunity
    $460 billion
    Current

    Defined brand in a defined geography.

    Marketplaces Added
    12
    Last year

    Company is getting much better at adding new marketplaces.

    TikTok Shop Revenue Growth
    482%
    FY25

    Ramping quickly from reasonably small numbers.

    Coupang Revenue
    $11 millionfrom $0 in 2024
    2025

    Ramped quickly in South Korea.

    Monthly D2C / Final Mile Delivery Units
    140,000
    Monthly

    Company is building capability for last-mile delivery where marketplaces don't provide it.

    AI Impact on Purchases
    22%
    Holiday season

    Rough number of purchases impacted by LLMs during the holiday season.

    Industry KPIs

    2
    MetricValueDetails
    Regional market performance63%%
    Operating income EBIT and adjusted EBITDA$153 millionUSD

    Deals & partnerships

    2
    ROI HunterAcquisition of a phenomenal business out of the Czech Republic, managing over $1 billion in ad spend across walled gardens.

    89 FTEs, manages over $1 billion in ad spend, offers product-specific and measurable advertising.

    NextWaveAcquisition of one of the premier TikTok shop operators.

    Recommended by TikTok, phenomenal team and operators.

    Risks & headwinds

    4
    Difficult comparables in H2 2026H2 2026

    lapping record 40% plus growth rates

    Mitigation: Forecasting methodology takes a middle-of-the-road approach for new brand partner revenue; NRR expected to normalize to 115%.

    More normalized cadence of new product expansions2026

    null

    Mitigation: Company continues to add product depth and expand relationships with brand partners.

    Increased investment in R&D and fulfillment leading to short-term margin deleverage2026

    R&D grew 46% YoY in FY25; adjusted EBITDA margin expected to be 5.8% in FY26 vs 6.1% in FY25

    Mitigation: Strategic investment to fuel future growth, strengthen technology moat, and accelerate go-to-market; expected to return to leverage in fulfillment line items in the following year.

    Rapidly evolving e-commerce landscape and AI disruptionOngoing

    LLMs and AI-driven discovery fundamentally rewiring purchase path; Agentic shopping emerging

    Mitigation: Pattern is uniquely positioned with its data moat, international breadth, logistics scale, and speed; continuously monitoring and adapting to changes in marketplace strategies (e.g., OpenAI's shift).

    What to watch in Q1 FY26

    5

    Net Revenue Retention (NRR)

    by end of FY26
    Current124% (FY25)
    TargetConverging towards 115%

    Why it matters

    NRR is a key indicator of existing brand partner growth and platform stickiness, impacting overall revenue trajectory.

    existing brand partner NRR converging to 115% by the end of the year, generally as our long-term target that we believe is really strong.

    Q&A highlights

    5

    How much of 2026 growth comes from existing vs. new partners, and will non-Amazon growth continue its strong momentum?

    2026 guidance assumes NRR converges to 115% by year-end due to tougher comps, and a middle-of-the-road approach for new brand partner revenue. Non-Amazon channels are expected to continue as a strong tailwind, with a large global pipeline of $460 billion, 39% of which is outside the Americas.

    non-Amazon revenue grew 60% for the full year and 94% in the fourth quarter. That momentum was driven in part by triple-digit year-over-year growth in Q4 on Coupang, TikTok Shop and Walmart.

    asked by Eric Sheridan · answered by Jason Beesley

    2 min read5 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    AI's Impact on E-commerce

    The e-commerce landscape is undergoing a fundamental shift driven by the rapid adoption of LLMs and AI-driven discovery. This technology is compressing the purchase funnel, allowing consumers to move from research to transaction within a single interface, bypassing traditional multi-stop shopping journeys. Pattern Group leverages its 66 trillion data points to provide brands with deep visibility into consumer intent and category white space, enabling them to innovate faster and capture market share in this hyper-transparent environment.

    02

    Strategic Moat and Operational Control

    Pattern's competitive advantage is built on its data density, international breadth, logistics scale, and speed. The company's intelligence layer is powered by over 66 trillion data points, enabling its automation engine to execute 5.53 billion marketplace bid changes and 40 million price changes in real time in 2025. This digital speed is complemented by an extensive international platform spanning 22 global offices and supporting over 70 marketplaces, underpinned by an inventory purchase model that provides agility and "skin in the game."

    03

    Operational Efficiency and Inventory Management

    In 2025, Pattern scaled its operations, significantly improving shipment volume and density, resulting in products reaching marketplaces in approximately 1.5 days. The company also demonstrated strong operational efficiency by improving its days inventory outstanding (DIO) to 72 days, a 10-day reduction year-over-year. This focus on efficiency and control is crucial in an era of AI disruption, allowing Pattern to help brands win in an evolving market.

    04

    Growth Levers and Brand Partner Longevity

    Pattern's growth is driven by three primary levers: technology-driven optimization, expansion into new marketplaces and geographies, and adding product depth with existing partners. These strategies have resulted in a record NRR of 124% and significant contributions from long-tenured brand partners, with over 53% of 2025 revenue attributable to partners of over five years. The company's ability to compound benefits for partners through ongoing investment in optimizing the e-commerce equation is a key driver of its sustained growth.

    05

    Investment in Future Growth and Fulfillment

    Pattern plans to increase investment in R&D to strengthen its technology moat in AI-driven automation and optimize decision-making. This includes building out fulfillment capabilities, with a new East Coast facility planned for 2026, following the Las Vegas launch. While these investments may lead to short-term margin deleverage, they are expected to fuel future top-line growth and long-term operational leverage, aligning with the company's focus on driving adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow dollar growth.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.