Shri Keshav — Q3 FY25 earnings call

Call held 14 Feb 2025

Management summary

Shri Keshav Cements & Infra Ltd. reported strong sequential growth in Q3 FY25, driven by operational efficiencies and its 100% green energy model, despite continued pricing pressure in the Southern market. The company completed its CAPEX for a new kiln, which is set to become operational by March 2025, aiming to significantly improve cost structures and profitability. Management is optimistic about future demand, driven by government infrastructure spending, and is focused on enhancing market share and operational metrics.

Highlights

  • EBITDA surged 88% quarter-on-quarter to ₹7.38 crores.

  • Total income increased 14% quarter-on-quarter to ₹29.04 crores.

  • EBITDA margin for Q3 FY25 stood at 26.26%.

  • PAT for Q3 FY25 was ₹0.64 crores, with an EPS of ₹0.36.

  • Solar generation improved 10.4% quarter-on-quarter.

  • Cement dispatch volumes for Q3 FY25 were 58,960 tons, a 14% YoY decline.

  • New kiln CAPEX completed, expected to be operational by March 2025, increasing capacity to 1 MTPA.

Concerns

  • Pricing pressure and low realization in Southern India

  • Industry overcapacity and competitive pressure

  • Unsustainable current cement prices

Key financials

  1. Total Income ₹29.04 Cr +14%QoQ
  2. EBITDA ₹7.38 Cr +88%QoQ
  3. EBITDA Margin 26.3%
  4. PAT ₹0.64 Cr
  5. EPS ₹0.36
  6. Cement Dispatches 58,960 tons -14.1%YoY
  7. EBITDA per ton (Overall) ₹1,251.69/ton

What they filed

Q1 FY27: revenue up 15.9%, net profit down 267.3% against the same quarter last year.

₹ Cr · quarterly
Line itemQ2 FY25Q3 FY25Q4 FY25Q1 FY26Q2 FY26Q3 FY26Q4 FY26Q1 FY27
Revenue24 28 38 41 35 +45%38 +35%47 +23%47 +16%
EBITDA3 6 8 10 8 +175%11 +63%7 −12%8 −24%
Net profit-4 1 -4 3 1 +117%-1 −184%-10 −121%-5 −267%
How to read this

₹ crore, as filed. The percentage beside a figure is the change against the same quarter a year earlier — never the quarter before, which would make every seasonal business look like it collapses and booms each year.

Capital allocation

medium confidence
  • Capex Capex disclosed
    • New kiln and plant commissioning
    We have just now completed the CAPEX in December- January and we are in a process to switch over to the new kiln.

Guidance & targets

Capacity

  • New Kiln Operational Status Capacity · March 2025 · High confidence Operational
    That is mainly because we will be switching over to the new plant in March now.

    — Venkatesh Katwa

  • New Plant Capacity Utilization Capacity · FY26 · High confidence 50%
    But to be on the safer side, we have taken 50% capacity utilization.

    — Venkatesh Katwa

  • Solar Capacity Expansion Decision Capacity · Next quarter · High confidence Decision to be announced
    Maybe by next quarter we will have some answer to our plans and expanding on renewable power.

    — Venkatesh Katwa

  • Total Cement Capacity Capacity · End of March 2025 · High confidence 1 million ton
    So currently what we have done is, the company is aware that then we will be having 1 million ton from by end of March 2025.

    — Venkatesh Katwa

Profitability

  • Cement EBITDA per ton Profitability · Post new kiln commissioning (implied FY26) · Medium confidence ~Rs. 422 or better
    So, if you look at clearly at the South, the EBITDA per ton is around Rs. 422. But if you look for the nine months for this year for only for the southern region, the EBITDA per ton they have realized is Rs. 463, ours is around Rs. 50 or even less. So, what we will be targeting is to be as close as or equal to what we see in the South and even better.

    — Venkatesh Katwa

Revenue

  • Total Income Revenue · FY25 · Medium confidence Last year's level or slightly higher
    But typically, I would say our top line should reach the level what we did last year or maybe a little higher.

    — Venkatesh Katwa

Volume

  • Cement Dispatches Growth Volume · Q4 FY25 · Medium confidence Growing
    line might improve because volumes would be growing in Q4.

    — Venkatesh Katwa

What to watch in Q4 FY25

New Kiln Operational Status

March 2025
Current CAPEX completed, switchover process to begin
Target Kiln fully operational

Why it matters

Successful commissioning is expected to significantly improve EBITDA margins and reduce fuel/power costs, crucial for overall profitability.

The CAPEX is complete. It's just that we have to switch over to the new kiln by March.

Risks & concerns

  • Pricing pressure and low realization in Southern India

    high

    Realizations in the South were hit harder, leading to cement-specific EBITDA margins of less than Rs. 50 per ton, significantly lower than industry peers.

    Management acknowledged

  • Industry overcapacity and competitive pressure

    high

    Increased capacities across the industry and ongoing consolidation are leading to pressure on EBITDA margins as players compete for market share.

    Management acknowledged

  • Unsustainable current cement prices

    high

    Current cement prices are not sustainable, indicating potential for volatility or necessary price corrections.

    Management acknowledged

  • Operational teething issues with new kiln

    medium

    New machinery typically faces initial hiccups, which might affect operations post-commissioning.

    Management acknowledged

Q&A highlights

7 direct
Bottom line growth despite better turnover and EBITDA Direct
It is mainly because of very less net realization that we are getting, particularly in South, which is affecting our PAT margins. ... the EBITDA margin exclusively on cement, what the major plants are generating is upwards of Rs. 700 to 800 whereas in our cases it is less than Rs. 50.

Highlights the specific challenge of low cement-specific realization and its impact on PAT, despite overall EBITDA growth driven by solar.

Asked by Sanjay Shah

New capacity utilization for 1 MTPA by FY26 end Direct
But to be on the safer side, we have taken 50% capacity utilization.

Provides a specific target for the utilization of the newly expanded capacity, indicating management's conservative outlook.

Asked by Deep Parekh

Financial impact of new kiln by FY26 end Direct
So, with the new kiln and the new machinery, two things are going to happen. One, the fuel consumption will go down on per ton basis, per ton of manufacturing of cement. Even the power cost is going to go down.

Explains the expected cost efficiencies from the new kiln, which are crucial for improving profitability, especially given current low cement-specific margins.

Asked by Deep Parekh

Cement demand trends and 76.34% revenue contribution Direct
Q1-Q2 was definitely very bad. Q2 mainly because monsoons plus the central government had just formed. So, there was no impetus from the industry. Q3 was just beginning to show some kind of discipline in the volumes. But something really happened by the last week of December or first week of January. So Q3 I would say the prices stopped falling. That was one good thing about Q3. In Q4 what we are seeing, even though the price have not increased significantly but volumes, you would see improved volumes across for all the cement plants.

Provides a detailed overview of recent market conditions, demand seasonality, and the current positive trend in volumes for Q4 FY25.

Asked by Mahesh Sheth

Solar energy revenue contribution and future expansion plans Partial
Regarding expansion, yes, the board and company is thinking of adding more solar capacity. But as such as of now nothing has been finalized. Maybe by next quarter we will have some answer to our plans and expanding on renewable power.

Indicates potential for further solar expansion, which is a key differentiator and cost advantage for the company, with a timeline for an update.

Asked by Mahesh Sheth

Cement pricing in Q3 FY25 vs Q3 FY24 and current prices Direct
So naked cement price of Q3FY24 is Rs. 3,761. Now it is Q3FY25 is Rs. 3,302. So, if you look at your realization standpoint, it has reduced by 8%. And industry has reduced by around 10% to 12%. So, we are at par over there. And similarly, the price compared to the previous quarter also, it has reduced by 1%.

Quantifies the significant year-on-year decline in cement realization, explaining the pressure on profitability.

Asked by Adity Roy

Q3 FY25 vs Q3 FY24 and 9-month FY25 vs 9-month FY24 volumes Direct
So, the volumes of Q3FY24 was 68,610 tons and Q3FY25 was 58,960 tons. So, there's a dip of around 14%. For the nine months I don't know exactly, but we have remained on the similar, it's around 100. I can do a calculation here. So, for nine months FY24 is around 1,74,000 and similarly almost 1,73,600 for nine months FY25.

Provides specific volume data, showing a YoY decline in Q3 and a flat performance for the nine-month period, clarifying earlier statements about dispatch growth.

Asked by Manan Vandur

Delay in new kiln commissioning from January to March Direct
Now what has happened is suddenly there is a huge increase in dispatches from January. And once we start doing the switchover, it might take about 25 days for us to shut down the kiln. So, we will not have any production of the clinker during that period. So had we taken this last quarter when the sales were low, it would have helped us. But now since we're reaching over 90%-95% capacity utilization, we don't want to have any kind of gap for dispatches.

Explains the strategic rationale behind the delay, prioritizing uninterrupted dispatches during a period of high demand over immediate kiln switchover.

Asked by Manan Vandur

2 min read 5 chapters

Detailed narrative

Q3 FY25 Performance Overview

Shri Keshav Cements & Infra Ltd. reported a strong sequential performance in Q3 FY25, with EBITDA surging 88% quarter-on-quarter to ₹7.38 crores, achieving an EBITDA margin of 26.26%. Total income for the quarter increased by 14% QoQ to ₹29.04 crores. However, cement dispatch volumes for Q3 FY25 were 58,960 tons, representing a 14% year-on-year decline from 68,610 tons in Q3 FY24. Net profit stood at ₹0.64 crores, with an EPS of ₹0.36. For the nine months ended December 31, 2024, total income was ₹85.64 crores, and EBITDA was ₹20.17 crores, with a margin of 24.29%.

Strategic Focus: Renewable Energy & Cost Efficiency

The company maintains its commitment to renewable energy, meeting 100% of its energy needs through solar power since April 2018, which has led to a 75-80% reduction in power costs. Solar generation improved by 10.4% QoQ in Q3 FY25, partly due to a new 3 MW addition in August 2024. Management emphasized that their overall EBITDA margins are among the highest in the cement industry, largely attributable to their solar initiatives, which significantly offset the lower cement-specific margins (less than ₹50 per ton).

Cement Market Dynamics & Pricing Pressure

The cement sector experienced challenging conditions in Q1 and Q2 FY25 due to elections and monsoons, resulting in 'very bad realization,' particularly in the Southern market. The naked cement price in Q3 FY25 was ₹3,302, an 8% reduction from ₹3,761 in Q3 FY24, and a 1% QoQ decline. While Q3 saw prices stabilize, Q4 has shown improved volumes. Management anticipates better price discipline and realization to improve by FY26 end, noting that current prices are 'definitely not sustainable' given industry overcapacity and competitive pressures.

Capacity Expansion & Operational Outlook

Shri Keshav Cements has completed the CAPEX for a new kiln, which is expected to be operational by March 2025, increasing total capacity to 1 million tons per annum. The commissioning was strategically delayed from January to March to avoid disrupting dispatches during a period of high capacity utilization (90-95%). Management projects a 50% utilization rate for the new capacity by FY26 end, anticipating significant improvements in PAT margins and reductions in fuel and power consumption once the new kiln is fully operational.

Market Strategy & Future Growth

The company is actively pursuing strategies to enhance market share and capitalize on government-led infrastructure development. Initiatives include hiring top talent, expanding dealer networks, engaging with institutions, and implementing digital marketing. Management aims to achieve cement-specific EBITDA margins comparable to or better than other South-based players, which currently average around ₹422 per ton. They are also considering further solar capacity expansion, with a decision expected by the next quarter, to further strengthen their competitive advantage.

This is an AI-generated summary of a publicly available earnings call transcript.