InterGlobe Aviation Limited — Q4 FY24 earnings call

Call held 23 May 2024

Management summary

IndiGo delivered a transformative FY24 with INR 82 billion net profit - its best year ever - driven by 22% capacity growth, strong yields, and benign fuel. Q4 was the 6th consecutive profitable quarter. Management announced key strategic moves: business class product (details in August), A350-900 widebody order (30 firm), and capacity guidance of early double-digit growth for FY25. AOG situation stabilized at mid-70s with management indicating peak had been reached.

Highlights

  • FY24 total income of INR 712 billion (+27% YoY); annual net profit of INR 82 billion vs marginal loss in FY23

  • Q4 FY24 total income INR 185 billion; net profit INR 18.9 billion (10.6% margin) vs INR 9.2 billion (6.5%) in Q4 FY23

  • FY24 EBITDAR of INR 175.4 billion vs INR 73.1 billion in FY23 (+140%); capacity grew 21.8% YoY

  • Q4 yields improved 7% YoY; load factor 86.3% (+2.1 pts YoY); RASK at INR 5.13 (+10% YoY)

  • Fuel CASK down 6.9% YoY from lower fuel prices; CASK ex-fuel ex-forex up ~9% from escalations and AOG costs

  • Free cash of INR 208.2 billion (+INR 16.2 billion QoQ); CRISIL rating AA-/Stable and A1+

  • 65 aircraft added in FY24 including 12 damp-leased; AOG count range-bound at mid-70s

  • Announced tailor-made business class for busiest routes launching before end of CY2024; A350-900 order for 30 widebody aircraft

Concerns

  • AOG situation stable but unresolved at mid-70s

Key financials

3 periods

Headline

  • Free Cash
    ₹20,820 Cr

Q4

  • Total Income
    ₹18,500 Cr
  • Net Profit
    ₹1,890 Cr
    YoY +105.4%
  • Net Profit Margin
    10.6%
  • EBITDAR
    ₹4,410 Cr
  • RASK
    ₹5.13
    YoY +10%
  • Yield
    —
    YoY +7%
  • Load Factor
    86.3%

FY24

  • Total Income
    ₹71,200 Cr
    YoY +27%
  • Net Profit
    ₹8,170 Cr
  • Net Profit ex-forex
    ₹8,890 Cr
  • EBITDAR
    ₹17,540 Cr
    YoY +140%
  • Passengers
    107 Mn

What they filed

Q1 FY27: revenue up 19.9%, net profit down 117.7% against the same quarter last year.

₹ Cr · quarterly
Line itemQ2 FY25Q3 FY25Q4 FY25Q1 FY26Q2 FY26Q3 FY26Q4 FY26Q1 FY27
Revenue16,970 22,111 22,152 20,496 18,555 +9%23,472 +6%22,438 +1%24,584 +20%
EBITDA1,618 5,160 6,082 5,205 545 −66%5,353 +4%741 −88%3,211 −38%
Net profit-989 2,442 3,073 2,161 -2,614 −164%613 −75%-2,662 −187%-382 −118%
How to read this

₹ crore, as filed. The percentage beside a figure is the change against the same quarter a year earlier — never the quarter before, which would make every seasonal business look like it collapses and booms each year.

Segment breakdown

  • International
    27% ASK Share— Revenue Share33 Destinations45 % YoY Codeshare Passenger Growth

Guidance & targets

Capacity

  • FY25 ASK Growth Capacity · FY25 · High confidence Early double digits
    we will broadly grow our capacity at early double digits in the financial year 2025

    — Gaurav Negi

  • Q1 FY25 ASK Growth Capacity · Q1 FY25 · High confidence 10-12% YoY
    we are expecting to add around 10 to 12% capacity as compared to same period last year

    — Gaurav Negi

Revenue

  • Q1 FY25 PRASK Revenue · Q1 FY25 · Medium confidence Similar to Q1 FY24
    we are currently experiencing similar revenue environment in Q1FY25 as compared to Q1FY24

    — Gaurav Negi

Fleet

  • Fleet Target by 2030 Fleet · FY30 · High confidence 600+ aircraft
    With our target of 600 plus aircraft fleet by the end of this decade

    — Pieter Elbers

Risks & concerns

  • AOG situation stable but unresolved at mid-70s

    high

    Mid-70s AOGs still range-bound. Management says peaked but no clear timeline for reduction. Costly mitigation measures (damp leases) ongoing. Compensation from OEM partially offsets but not fully.

    Both acknowledged

  • Accelerating cost inflation in maintenance and airport fees

    medium

    Inflation in maintenance (linked to European/US indices) and airport charges (control period shifts) running at high single-digit to low double-digit. CASK ex-fuel ex-forex up 9% YoY in Q4.

    Both acknowledged

  • Yield normalization after exceptional FY24 base

    medium

    FY24 benefited from competitor capacity exits creating favorable supply-demand. Q1 FY25 guided at similar PRASK to Q1 FY24 despite lower capacity growth, suggesting yield pressure. Average fare stable at INR 5,000-6,000 range.

    Analyst acknowledged

  • Business class execution risk in price-sensitive market

    low

    Launching business class in a market where 3 airline CEOs acknowledge low fares. Management positions it as long-term strategic move aligned with evolving consumer needs, not yield play.

    Analyst downplayed

Areas of evasion (3)

  • OEM compensation details
  • Business class specifics deferred to August
  • FY25 spread or profitability guidance refused

Q&A highlights

2 direct
Cost inflation outlook for FY25 - maintenance and airport charges Direct
High single-digit to early double digits is what we are experiencing. It's more than what we have experienced in the past, which was towards low single digit

Maintenance and airport fee inflation running at high single-digit to low double-digit, materially above historical low single-digit levels, putting pressure on FY25 margins

Asked by Binay Singh (Morgan Stanley)

Business class strategy as part of long-term evolution Partial
It's part of a holistic strategy... significant enough to have impact and prudent enough not to disturb the business model

Business class launch framed as evolution matching India's GDP trajectory toward 3rd largest economy, not a reaction to yield pressures. Details deferred to August.

Asked by Pramod Kumar (UBS)

Dividend outlook and capital allocation Direct
while our net worth has become positive, we are still negative as far as the overall retained earnings is concerned

Dividends cannot commence until accumulated reserves turn positive - regulatory constraint. Significant carry-forward losses from pandemic era still being utilized.

Asked by Arpit Shah (Stallion Asset)

2 min read 5 chapters

Detailed narrative

Transformative FY24: Record Profitability and Scale

IndiGo delivered its best-ever year with INR 8,170 crores net profit (INR 8,890 crores ex-forex) on revenue of INR 71,200 crores (+27% YoY). EBITDAR surged 140% to INR 17,540 crores. The airline served 107 million passengers, grew capacity 21.8%, and reported 6 consecutive profitable quarters. FY24 performance was boosted by competitor capacity exits, strong yield environment, and benign fuel.

Business Class and A350 Orders Define Next Strategic Phase

IndiGo announced tailor-made business class for busiest metro routes launching before end CY2024, with details to be unveiled in August. Combined with 30 firm A350-900 widebody orders, 500 A320neo family order, and XLR deliveries from 2025, these form cohesive strategy toward becoming a global aviation player. Management positioned business class as natural evolution aligned with India's trajectory to 3rd largest economy.

AOG Situation Peaked but Resolution Timeline Unclear

AOG count stabilized at mid-70s with management indicating peak has been reached. FY24 saw 65 aircraft additions including 12 damp-leased to mitigate. Exceeded initial FY24 capacity guidance of north of mid-teens. FY25 capacity guided at early double digits, with Q1 expected to recover to pre-powder metal inspection capacity levels.

Cost Inflation Accelerating Across Multiple Line Items

CASK ex-fuel ex-forex rose 9% YoY in Q4 with management flagging high single-digit to low double-digit inflation in maintenance and airport charges for FY25. Airport control period shifts driving rental increases. Maintenance inflation linked to European/US indices running above historical levels. Management focused on cost optimization and expects capacity growth to help moderate unit costs.

International Expansion Reaching Critical Scale

International ASK share at 27%, contributing 20-25% of revenue. Network expanded to 33 international destinations from 18 Indian cities with 100+ direct routes. Codeshare passenger growth of 45% YoY across 8 partnerships. New codeshares with British Airways and MOU with Malaysian Airlines. Trajectory toward 30% international ASK share with XLR and widebody enabling further reach.

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