Skip to content
    LLY
    Earnings call· Dec 2025(Q4 FY25)

    ELI LILLY & Q4 FY25 earnings call LLY

    Feb 4, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    Eli Lilly Q4 FY25 — Robust Growth Driven by Key Products and Pipeline Expansion

    Eli Lilly delivered strong Q4 FY25 results, driven by robust sales of key products like Mounjaro and Zepbound, alongside significant pipeline advancements and manufacturing expansion. The company is strategically investing in innovation and capacity, with a focus on expanding market access for its incretin portfolio, despite anticipated price erosion in 2026.

    Highlights

    5
    • Full year 2025 revenue grew 45% compared to 2024, reaching $65.2 billion.

    • Q4 2025 revenue grew 43% compared to Q4 2024, driven by key products.

    • Full year 2025 EPS grew 86% to $24.21.

    • Zepbound is the market leader in branded obesity with nearly 70% share of new prescriptions.

    • Mounjaro became the incretin share market leader outside the U.S. and expanded U.S. type 2 diabetes market leadership with over 55% of new prescriptions.

    Concerns

    3
    • U.S. revenue price declined 7% in Q4 2025, partially offsetting volume growth.

    • Price is expected to be a drag on 2026 growth in the low to mid-teens due to government agreements, direct-to-patient pricing, and lower Medicaid prices.

    • Late life cycle products like Trulicity, Taltz, and Verzenio are expected to be flat or decline in 2026.

    Guidance & targets

    9
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Full-year 2026 revenue
    $80 billion and $83 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Full-year 2026 non-GAAP performance margin
    between 46% and 47.5%
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Full-year 2026 earnings per share
    between $33.50 and $35
    high materiality
    High
    Orforglipron launch for chronic weight management
    Q2 2026
    high materiality
    High
    Orforglipron launch international
    most international markets during 2027
    medium materiality
    High
    Medicare access to obesity medicines
    no later than July 1, 2026
    high materiality
    High
    R&D expenses
    scale up
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Marketing, selling and administrative expenses
    grow
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Gross margin
    relatively stable to slightly down
    medium materiality
    Medium

    Segment performance

    10
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    U.S. Revenue
    Driven by volume growth of Mounjaro and Zepbound, partially offset by a 7% decline in price.
    43%
    Outside U.S. Revenue
    Driven by the launch of Mounjaro in new markets.
    Volume growth in Europe, Japan, China: double-digitVolume growth in rest of the world: doubled
    Neuroscience (Kisunla)
    Driven by overall market growth, increased awareness and diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease, and increased prescriber adoption.
    Share of total prescriptions in amyloid targeting therapy: >50%
    $109 million
    Immunology (EBGLYSS)
    Delivered solid performance in atopic dermatitis.
    U.S. total prescriptions in atopic dermatitis: +25% compared to Q3 2025
    Immunology (Omvoh)
    Continued its uptake, global revenue increased compared to Q4 2024.
    55%
    Oncology (Jaypirca)
    Posted another strong quarter of sales performance, global sales grew compared to Q4 2024. Recently received an expanded U.S. indication.
    30%
    Oncology (Verzenio)
    Driven by volume growth outside the U.S. Overall market penetration has reached a plateau in the U.S.
    Market leader in early breast cancer indication
    3%
    U.S. Zepbound
    Robust total prescription growth in both auto-injectors and vials.
    Market leader in branded obesity market: ~70% share of new prescriptionsZepbound vials as % of total Zepbound prescriptions: ~1/3Zepbound vials as % of new Zepbound prescriptions: ~50%
    more than doubled
    U.S. Mounjaro
    Expanded market leadership in the type 2 diabetes incretin market.
    Share of new prescriptions in type 2 diabetes incretin market: >55%
    International Mounjaro Business Mix
    Currently reimbursed in 9 countries for type 2 diabetes, including China with the NRDL.
    Chronic weight management (out of pocket): 75%Reimbursed for type 2 diabetes: 25%

    Operational metrics

    26
    Full year revenue
    $65.2 billion+45% compared to 2024
    FY25

    Delivered robust revenue growth for the full year.

    Full year EPS
    $24.21+86% compared to 2024
    FY25

    Strong growth in earnings per share.

    Q4 revenue growth
    43%compared to Q4 2024
    Q4 FY25

    Driven by key products.

    Gross margin as a percentage of revenue
    83.2%consistent with Q4 2024
    Q4 FY25

    Consistent performance in gross margin.

    R&D expenses growth
    26%
    Q4 FY25

    Driven by continued investments in early and late-stage portfolio.

    Marketing, selling and administrative expenses growth
    29%
    Q4 FY25

    Driven by promotional efforts to support ongoing and future launches.

    Non-GAAP performance margin
    47.2%increase of 4.2 percentage points compared to Q4 2024
    Q4 FY25

    Strong improvement in performance margin.

    Effective tax rate
    19.7%
    Q4 FY25

    Effective tax rate for the quarter.

    EPS
    $7.54compared to $5.32 in Q4 2024
    Q4 FY25

    Inclusive of acquired IPR&D charges.

    EPS
    $5.32
    Q4 FY24

    Prior year EPS, including acquired IPR&D charges.

    Key products revenue contribution
    $13 billiongrew by 91% compared to Q4 2024
    Q4 FY25

    Significant contribution from key products.

    Dividends distributed
    $1.3 billion
    FY25

    Part of capital allocation strategy.

    Share repurchases
    $1.5 billion
    FY25

    Part of capital allocation strategy.

    Manufacturing build-out commitment
    $55 billion
    Since 2020

    Largest manufacturing build-out in company history.

    Total market for immunology
    $170 billion
    not stated

    Analyst estimate of the total market size.

    Combined incretin analog market total prescriptions growth
    33%compared to Q4 2024
    Q4 FY25

    Continued robust growth trajectory.

    Incretin doses produced
    1.8xcompared to H2 2024
    H2 FY25

    Exceeded goal for manufacturing capacity.

    LillyDirect engagement
    over 1 million
    FY25

    Number of people engaging with the U.S. direct-to-patient platform.

    Obesity market penetration
    mid-single digits
    current

    Penetration within the eligible population of people with obesity.

    Eloralintide weight loss
    20.1%
    not stated

    Achieved with eloralintide, showing favorable tolerability compared to existing incretin class.

    Incretin discontinuation rate
    5% to 10%
    not stated

    Discontinuation rate in trials due to intolerance, suggesting an opening for new options.

    Retatrutide weight loss (TRIUMPH-4)
    29%
    68 weeks

    Average body weight lost by participants taking retatrutide.

    Retatrutide WOMAC pain score reduction (TRIUMPH-4)
    4.5 points76% reduction
    not stated

    Average reduction in pain scores, accompanied by significant improvement in physical function.

    Retatrutide patients free from knee pain (TRIUMPH-4)
    more than 1 in 8
    end of trial

    Impressive outcome for patients treated with retatrutide.

    Retatrutide discontinuation due to adverse events (TRIUMPH-4)
    higher
    not stated

    Observed in participants with lower baseline BMI.

    Retatrutide discontinuation due to adverse events (TRIUMPH-4)
    consistent with other incretins
    not stated

    Safety profile generally consistent with other incretins.

    Industry KPIs

    11
    MetricValueDetails
    Prescription volume33%%
    EPS revenue guidance$80 billion-$83 billionUSD
    Pricing policy impactlow to mid-teens%
    Pipeline clinical milestones36count
    Regulatory approvals filings
    Therapeutic drug market share>50%%
    Price volume mix decomposition7%%
    Glp 1 incretin franchise metrics75%%
    Geographic regional revenue growth43%%
    Clinical trial efficacy safety data64%%
    Business development capacity deal size appetite39count

    Product announcements

    1
    ProductTypeDetails
    Zepbound multi-use KwikPen devicelaunch

    Deals & partnerships

    7
    Scorpionbusiness development transaction

    One of 39 business development transactions executed across all therapeutic areas.

    Vervebusiness development transaction

    One of 39 business development transactions executed across all therapeutic areas.

    SiteOnebusiness development transaction

    One of 39 business development transactions executed across all therapeutic areas.

    Adverumbusiness development transaction

    One of 39 business development transactions executed across all therapeutic areas.

    Ventyxacquisition

    Upcoming acquisition to add a clinical stage asset.

    NVIDIAcollaboration

    New collaboration to open a co-innovation AI lab, combining Lilly's scientific expertise with NVIDIA's technology to accelerate drug discovery.

    U.S. governmentagreement

    Agreement to provide access to obesity medicines to millions of Americans with insurance through Medicare and Medicaid, at a cost of $50 per month out of pocket.

    Risks & headwinds

    3
    Price erosion2026

    low to mid-teens

    Mitigation: Expected to be more than offset by increased volume over time as the number of people benefiting from Lilly medicines expands.

    Medicaid access reduction2026

    not stated

    Mitigation: Due to key states like California removing obesity coverage, but new states are expected to add coverage for people with Medicaid in 2027.

    Lower realized pricesQ4 2025

    7% decline in U.S. Q4 revenue

    Mitigation: Partially offset by favorable product mix and improved production costs.

    Q&A highlights

    8

    What metrics will Lilly track for the orforglipron launch in the next year?

    Ken Custer stated that Lilly will be looking at market expansion, patient satisfaction, and real-world efficacy. He noted that oral Wegovy's success validates the belief in substantial demand for an oral option, expanding the market with mostly new starts. Lilly feels confident in orforglipron's competitive profile and expects patient satisfaction and real-world efficacy to be key.

    We're very encouraged by what we're seeing with oral Wegovy as it validates our belief that there's a substantial number of people with overweight and obesity who've been sitting on the sidelines waiting for an oral option. It looks like these are mostly new starts. That means it's expanding the market and that's good news for Lilly.

    asked by Evan Seigerman · answered by Kenneth Custer

    2 min read7 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    2025 Performance Highlights

    Eli Lilly achieved robust revenue growth of 45% in 2025, reaching $65.2 billion, with EPS growing 86% to $24.21. The company launched new medicines, secured new indications for Omvoh and Jaypirca, and completed international rollouts for Mounjaro and Kisunla, significantly expanding its global footprint and patient reach. Q4 2025 revenue grew 43% year-over-year, driven by key products, contributing to strong financial performance.

    02

    Pipeline and R&D Advancements

    The company generated positive clinical data in over 25 Phase III trials, including registrational trials for orforglipron and retatrutide, and initiated 14 new Phase III programs. Lilly also executed 39 business development transactions, adding multiple clinical-stage assets through acquisitions like Scorpion, Verve, and SiteOne. Investments in AI, including a new collaboration with NVIDIA, aim to accelerate drug discovery and development.

    03

    Manufacturing Expansion and Supply

    Lilly committed over $55 billion since 2020 to manufacturing build-out, the largest in company history, increasing capacity and starting production at new sites in Wisconsin and North Carolina. The company exceeded its goal to produce 1.8x the number of incretin doses in the second half of 2025 compared to the second half of 2024, addressing supply needs for its growing portfolio.

    04

    Incretin Portfolio Strategy and Market Access

    Lilly is focused on expanding the addressable market for its incretin therapies, with orforglipron expected to launch in the U.S. in Q2 2026. The company anticipates new Medicare access for obesity medicines by July 1, 2026, and is actively working to increase commercial coverage through employer engagement and alternative access channels. LillyDirect engagement increased to over 1 million patients in 2025, with Zepbound self-pay vials representing a significant portion of new patient starts.

    05

    Combination Therapies in Immunology

    Lilly is exploring the potential of incretins in combination with immunology treatments, with positive Phase IIIb data for ixekizumab plus tirzepatide in psoriatic arthritis showing a 64% relative increase in PsA symptom reduction. Ongoing trials are investigating similar combinations in psoriasis, Crohn's disease, and ulcerative colitis, aiming for improved outcomes in patients with comorbid conditions. Brenipatide is also being advanced into Phase II for asthma.

    06

    Oncology Pipeline Progress

    The FDA granted full approval for pirtobrutinib with an expanded indication for relapsed or refractory CLL/SLL, and positive Phase III data supports its use in earlier lines of therapy. Lilly is also advancing new oncology molecules like Sofetabart Mipitecan, an antibody drug conjugate for ovarian cancer that received breakthrough therapy designation, and initiating Phase III programs for tersolisib and vepugratinib, targeting unmet needs in various cancers.

    07

    Neuroscience and Cardiometabolic Health Updates

    The company initiated trials exploring incretins for substance use disorders and psychiatric conditions, including brenipatide for alcohol use disorder, tobacco use disorder, and bipolar disorder. In Alzheimer's, the TRAILBLAZER-ALZ 3 study for donanemab is progressing. In cardiometabolic health, positive top-line results from the ATTAIN-MAINTAIN trial for orforglipron showed efficacy in weight maintenance, and retatrutide's TRIUMPH-4 trial demonstrated significant weight loss and pain reduction in obesity with knee osteoarthritis.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.