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    Greenpanel Industries Limited

    GREENPANEL
    Consumer Durables·22 May 2025
    Management Summary

    Greenpanel Industries reported a challenging Q4 FY25 with a 25% YoY decline in MDF domestic volumes and a 15.3% fall in MDF sales value, primarily due to the discontinuation of commercial grade MDF in anticipation of BIS QCOs. Despite this, MDF EBITDA margins improved QoQ to 16.3% driven by EPCG incentives. The company anticipates a ~30% volume growth in FY26, supported by existing lines and the new thin MDF capacity, with expectations of improved margins and a 5-7% fall in timber prices. Net debt stood at Rs. 165 crore, including the expansion project.

    Highlights

    5
    • MDF EBITDA margins improved QoQ to 16.3% due to EPCG incentives.

    • Plywood EBITDA margins improved to 12.1% due to write-back of provisions.

    • Export volumes for MDF increased by 34% in Q4 FY25.

    • Domestic MDF realizations were higher by 7.4% YoY at Rs. 31,214 per cubic meter due to a higher mix of value-added products (50% vs 44%).

    • Expect improved performance in FY26 with the addition of thin MDF and anticipated BIS QCO implementation boosting demand.

    Concerns

    5
    • MDF domestic sales volumes fell by 25% YoY in Q4 FY25 due to discontinuation of commercial grade MDF.

    • Net sales in Q4 FY25 were Rs. 338.94 crore, down from Rs. 396.08 crore in the corresponding period.

    • Post-tax profits for Q4 FY25 were lower by 1% at Rs. 29.39 crore compared to Rs. 29.81 crore in the corresponding quarter.

    • Net working capital increased by 8 days YoY to 36 days due to lower turnover and high inventory levels.

    • FY25 MDF EBITDA margins fell to 11.7% due to a 3.7% fall in domestic realizations and a 23% increase in wood prices.

    What Changed2

    vs Q1 FY26

    Guidance items6 → 14 (+8)Risks discussed5 → 3 (-2)

    Key financials

    Single quarter

    06 metrics
    1. 01Net Sales₹338.94 Cr-14.4%YoY
    2. 02MDF Sales Value₹305.17 Cr-15.3%YoY
    3. 03MDF EBITDA Margin16.3%
    4. 04Plywood EBITDA Margin12.1%
    5. 05Post-tax Profits₹29.39 Cr-1.4%YoY

    Segment breakdown

    MDF
    -25% Domestic Sales Volume Growth34% Export Sales Volume Growth31,214 Rs/cubic meter Domestic Realizations22,389 Rs/cubic meter Export Realizations29,961 Rs/cubic meter Blended Realizations
    Plywood
    -12% Volumes Growth270 Rs/square meter Realizations
    List

    Capital allocation

    2
    high confidence
    CategoryHeadline
    Capex

    ₹30 crores

    Debt

    Net ₹165 crores

    Guidance & targets

    14
    CategoryTargetPriority
    Volume
    Total Volume Growth
    ~30%
    High
    Volume
    Existing Lines Volume Growth
    11-12%
    High
    Volume
    Export Volume (Additional)
    80,000 cubic meters
    High
    Capacity Utilization
    New Line Capacity Utilization
    72,000 cubic meters
    High
    Capacity Utilization
    New Plant Capacity Utilization
    35%
    High
    Profitability
    MDF EBITDA Margins (ex-EPCG)
    ~12%
    High
    Profitability
    Plywood EBITDA Margins (ex-EPCG)
    7-8%
    High
    Raw Material Costs
    Timber Prices Fall
    ~5-7%
    Medium
    Tax Rate
    Effective Tax Rate
    ~20%
    High
    Expenses
    Depreciation
    Rs. 100-102 crore
    High
    Expenses
    Fixed Cost Increase (New Plant)
    Rs. 5-6 crore
    High
    Incentives
    Balance EPCG Incentive
    Rs. 51 crore
    High
    Realization
    New Thin MDF Industrial Realization
    Rs. 25,000-26,000 per cubic meter
    High
    Product Mix
    New Plant Value-Added Product Mix Parity
    3-year exercise
    High

    What to watch in Q1 FY26

    5

    New Thin MDF Line Ramp-up

    Q2 FY26
    CurrentOptimization phase, under plant supplier control
    TargetSubstantial output and handover by Q2 FY26

    Why it matters

    Successful ramp-up is crucial for achieving FY26 volume growth targets and realizing benefits from the expansion project.

    But I think we should start getting a substantial contribution of the capacity from quarter two of this year. Because at the moment, the line is still under the control of the plant supplier. And it is still under the optimization phase. Because it's, let's say, a very technologically advanced line. And it's a very high speed line. Hence, it's a longer period of optimization. Hence, we foresee that by quarter two, we should have the line handed over to us and we should start seeing a fair amount of output coming out of it.

    Risks & concerns

    3
    RiskSeverity

    Raw material price increase

    A 23% price increase in wood prices year-on-year impacted FY25 EBITDA margins by 6.7%.Management acknowledged

    medium

    Optimization period for new technologically advanced line

    The new high-speed line requires a longer optimization period, with substantial contribution expected only from Q2 FY26.Management acknowledged

    medium

    Unorganized segment non-compliance during grace period

    The unorganized segment is not fully compliant with BIS during the grace period, potentially impacting Q1 FY26 volumes.Management acknowledged

    low

    Q&A highlights

    8

    “So on account of volumes, from the existing lines, line one and line two, we are expecting about 11%-12% growth in terms of volumes in the coming year. And because the first quarter is quite muted for the new line, so we're expecting about 72,000 cubic meter capacity utilization over the year from the new line. So combined as a company, this would give us about a 30% volume growth, including the production considered for the new line.”

    Clarifies the expected volume contribution from both existing and new capacities, providing a comprehensive growth outlook.

    asked by Keshav Lahoti

    3 min read7 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Q4 & FY25 Performance Overview

    Greenpanel Industries reported Q4 FY25 net sales of Rs. 338.94 crore, a decrease from Rs. 396.08 crore in the prior year. Post-tax profits for the quarter were Rs. 29.39 crore, a marginal 1% decline from Rs. 29.81 crore. For the full year FY25, post-tax profits were Rs. 72.11 crore, a 49% reduction, primarily due to a 3.7% fall in domestic realizations and a 23% increase in wood prices, which led to a 615 basis point drop in EBITDA margins to 10.9%.

    02

    MDF Segment Dynamics

    The MDF segment saw domestic sales volumes fall by 25% YoY in Q4 FY25, largely due to the discontinuation of commercial grade MDF, which was nil in the quarter compared to 40,924 cubic meters in Q4 FY24. Despite this, domestic realizations increased by 7.4% YoY to Rs. 31,214 per cubic meter, driven by a higher mix of value-added products (50% vs 44%). Export volumes, however, grew by 34% to 14,458 cubic meters. MDF EBITDA margins stood at 16.3% in Q4, benefiting from EPCG scheme incentives.

    03

    Plywood Segment Performance

    Plywood volumes in Q4 FY25 were lower by 12% YoY, with sales de-growth of 5.3% to Rs. 33.77 crore. The unit operated at 42% capacity utilization. Plywood realizations increased by 8% YoY to Rs. 270 per square meter. EBITDA margins for the plywood segment were 12.1%, positively impacted by a write-back of provisions for turnover discounts amounting to Rs. 1.25 crore.

    04

    Expansion Project & Capacity Outlook

    Commercial production has commenced at the expansion project, with the company targeting a 35% capacity utilization for the new line in FY26, contributing approximately 72,000 cubic meters. Overall, Greenpanel expects about 30% volume growth in FY26, including an 11-12% growth from existing lines and an additional 80,000 cubic meters from the export business. The new line, being technologically advanced, is in an optimization phase, with substantial output expected from Q2 FY26.

    05

    EPCG Incentives and Financial Impact

    The company recognized Rs. 35 crore from EPCG incentives in Q4 FY25, contributing to the higher MDF EBITDA margins. The total EPCG incentive expected is Rs. 86 crore, with the remaining balance of Rs. 51 crore anticipated to be recognized over FY26 and FY27. This incentive is a customs duty waiver on imported machinery, which was accounted for after the plant's commissioning and commercial production began.

    06

    Market Dynamics & Regulatory Impact

    The market for MDF is seeing strong demand growth of 15-20%, with import-concentrated segments shifting towards domestic supply. The upcoming implementation of BIS QCOs from February 2026 is expected to boost demand for domestically manufactured furniture and raw materials like MDF and plywood. This regulation will also minimize the threat from the unorganized segment by increasing their costs and reducing their price-cutting power, thereby benefiting organized players like Greenpanel.

    07

    Capital Allocation & Debt Position

    Net debt as of March 31, 2025, stood at Rs. 165 crore, which includes Rs. 336 crore allocated for the expansion project. For FY26, the company anticipates a modest capex of approximately Rs. 25 crore for the balance of the new line and an additional Rs. 10-15 crore for existing business, totaling Rs. 30-45 crore. The company also expects depreciation to be around Rs. 100-102 crore for FY26.

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