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    Gujarat Gas

    GUJGASLTD
    Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels·21 Jan 2026
    Management Summary

    Gujarat Gas reported a mixed Q3 FY26, with strong EBITDA growth driven by improved margins and robust CNG segment performance, which saw 11% YoY sales growth. However, industrial sales, particularly in Morbi, experienced a 10% QoQ decline due to competitive propane pricing. The company is actively addressing industrial volume challenges through price adjustments and strategic sourcing, while also progressing on digital transformation and infrastructure expansion.

    Highlights

    6
    • EBITDA for Q3 FY26 stood at INR 502 crores, compared to INR 439 crores in Q3 FY25.

    • EBITDA margin per SCM was ₹6.5 in Q3 FY26, an increase from ₹5.04 in Q3 FY25.

    • CNG sales volume increased by 11% year-over-year, with a 9% rise in Gujarat and a notable 22% growth in areas outside Gujarat.

    • The domestic customer base grew by 38,000 new commissioned connections in Q3 FY26, bringing the total to over 23.83 lakh households.

    • Post price reduction, Morbi industrial volumes increased from 1.68 MMSCMD in Q3 to 2.2 MMSCMD, with expectations to reach 3-3.2 MMSCMD by February/March 2026.

    • Non-Morbi industrial volumes showed a steady growth of approximately 1% QoQ and 7% YoY, reaching 2.25 MMSCMD.

    Concerns

    5
    • Industrial sales volume decreased by 10% QoQ to 3.93 MMSCMD in Q3 FY26 from 4.35 MMSCMD in Q2 FY26.

    • Morbi volumes specifically reduced from 2.13 MMSCMD in Q2 FY26 to 1.66 MMSCMD in Q3 FY26 due to lower propane prices.

    • APM gas allocation faced a 51% shortfall for the priority segment (Domestic and CNG), with a 64% shortfall for CNG.

    • The sequential gas cost reduction was only INR 0.20 per SCM, lower than analyst expectations of INR 1 per SCM.

    • New gas transmission tariffs are expected to have a negative impact of INR 1 per SCM on gross profit margins for each MMSCMD volume increase.

    Key financials

    Single quarter

    06 metrics
    1. 01Revenue from Operations₹3,865 Cr-10.8%YoY
    2. 02EBITDA₹502 Cr+14.3%YoY
    3. 03PAT (9 Months)₹1,176 Cr+1.5%YoY
    4. 04EBITDA Margin per SCM₹6.5+29.0%YoY
    5. 05Industrial Sales Volume3.93 MMSCMD-9.7%QoQ

    Segment breakdown

    Industrial Segment
    3.93 MMSCMD Sales Volume1.66 MMSCMD Morbi Volume2.25 MMSCMD Non-Morbi Volume
    CNG Segment
    11% Sales Growth9% Gujarat Sales Growth22% Outside Gujarat Sales Growth
    Domestic Segment
    38,000 customers New Connections Added (Q3 FY26)23.83 lakhs Total Households
    List

    Capital allocation

    2
    high confidence
    CategoryHeadline
    Capex

    ₹650 crores

    Debt

    Debt disclosed

    Guidance & targets

    7
    CategoryTargetPriority
    Profitability
    EBITDA margin per SCM
    ₹5.5 to ₹6.5
    High
    Capex
    Capital Expenditure
    INR 650-700 crores
    High
    Volume
    Morbi volumes
    3 to 3.2 MMSCMD
    Medium
    Volume
    CNG growth rate
    13%
    Low
    Capacity
    CNG stations
    1,000 stations
    Medium
    Gas Sourcing
    Long-term gas sourcing proportion
    60-70%
    Medium
    Gas Sourcing
    Long-term gas sourcing timeline
    by end of '27
    Medium

    What to watch in Q4 FY26

    5

    Morbi industrial volume recovery

    February and March 2026
    Current2.2 MMSCMD (current run rate)
    Target3-3.2 MMSCMD

    Why it matters

    Recovery in Morbi volumes is crucial for overall industrial sales and profitability, given its sensitivity to price differentials.

    So we are expecting close to 3 to 3.2 MMSCMD in Morbi

    Risks & concerns

    4
    RiskSeverity

    Industrial volume decline due to propane price competitiveness

    Morbi volumes reduced from 2.13 MMSCMD in Q2 FY26 to 1.66 MMSCMD in Q3 FY26 as propane prices remained considerably lower than GGL's natural gas prices.Management acknowledged

    medium

    APM gas allocation shortfall for priority segments

    There was a 51% overall shortfall in APM gas allocation for the priority segment (Domestic and CNG), with a 64% shortfall for CNG, necessitating sourcing from spot and long-term volumes.Management acknowledged

    medium

    Impact of new gas transmission tariffs on gross profit margins

    New gas transmission tariffs are expected to have an approximate INR 1 per SCM negative impact on gross profit margins for every 1 MMSCMD volume increase.Analyst acknowledged

    medium

    Geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions

    Ongoing geopolitical tensions could disrupt the supply chain, impact shipping routes, and cause price volatility, posing a key challenge.Management acknowledged

    low

    Q&A highlights

    8

    “Currently, the propane price is around INR38.6 against our gas prices of INR41.”

    This clarifies the current competitive landscape in the Morbi industrial segment, where GGL's gas price is still higher than propane, impacting volumes.

    asked by Probal Sen, ICICI Securities

    3 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Q3 FY26 Financial Performance Overview

    Gujarat Gas reported a Q3 FY26 revenue from operations of INR 3,865 crores, a decrease from INR 4,333 crores in the corresponding quarter of the previous year. Despite this, EBITDA improved to INR 502 crores in Q3 FY26, up from INR 439 crores in Q3 FY25. The EBITDA margin per SCM also saw a significant increase, reaching ₹6.5 compared to ₹5.04 in the prior year's Q3. For the nine-month period, PAT stood at INR 1,176 crores, a slight increase from INR 1,159 crores in the same period last year.

    02

    Industrial Segment Dynamics and Morbi Recovery

    The industrial segment experienced a 10% sequential decline in sales volume, falling to 3.93 MMSCMD in Q3 FY26 from 4.35 MMSCMD in Q2 FY26. Specifically, Morbi volumes decreased from 2.13 MMSCMD to 1.66 MMSCMD due to propane's lower prices. However, following a price reduction of INR 4.50 per SCM effective January 1, 2026, Morbi volumes have recovered to 2.2 MMSCMD, with expectations to reach 3-3.2 MMSCMD by February/March. Non-Morbi volumes showed resilience, growing 1% QoQ to 2.25 MMSCMD and 7% YoY despite the Diwali festival.

    03

    CNG Segment Growth and Infrastructure Expansion

    The CNG segment demonstrated robust performance, with sales rising 11% year-over-year. Gujarat recorded a 9% increase, while areas outside Gujarat saw a notable 22% growth. The CNG vehicle base expanded by 14% YoY to approximately 16.94 lakh by December 2025. The company is aggressively expanding its CNG infrastructure, with 78 agreements signed for FDODO (Franchisee Dealer Owned Dealer Operated) stations, and expects to connect over 10 new stations this financial year, aiming for a total of 1,000 CNG stations within the next 2-3 years.

    04

    Digital Transformation and ESG Initiatives

    Gujarat Gas is undergoing a significant digital transformation, planning to expand its ERP ecosystem to integrate key business functions and implement a robust SCADA system for centralized monitoring. An advanced metering infrastructure is also planned for industrial and commercial customers to facilitate data collection and billing. The company is committed to ESG, having signed 8 new tripartite agreements for CBG purchase, bringing the total to 27. Promoting gas use has reduced CO2 emissions by 56 lakh kg/day for industrial customers and 21 lakh kg/day through CNG sales.

    05

    Gas Sourcing and Pricing Strategy

    APM gas allocation saw a 51% shortfall for the priority segment, with a 64% shortfall for CNG, which was mitigated by sourcing from New Well Gas, HPHT, and spot/long-term volumes. The company reduced prices in the Morbi Ceramic segment by INR 4.50 per SCM from January 1, 2026, to narrow the price differential with propane. Management expects propane prices to increase further in February, which should improve GGL's competitiveness. The long-term strategy aims to tie up 60-70% of volumes on a long-term basis by end of 2027 to ensure stable pricing and reduce reliance on spot markets.

    06

    Corporate Restructuring and Regulatory Updates

    The scheme of arrangement with the Ministry of Corporate Affairs is progressing, with the final hearing expected in February 2026 and completion anticipated by the next earnings call in May 2026, including the allotment of shares to GGL and GTL shareholders. Regarding the Delhi High Court litigation on open access guidelines for CGD, GGL has an interim protection, and the court is hearing associated regulatory matters, with a final verdict not expected in the near future.

    This is an AI-generated summary of a publicly available earnings call transcript. It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an endorsement. inve.money is not a SEBI-registered investment advisor. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.